MODEL PENGELOLAAN BERKELANJUTAN KAWASAN MANGROVE BERBASIS SISTEM DINAMIK UNTUK MENDUKUNG KETAHANAN EKOSISTEM PESISIR KABUPATEN INDRAMAYU
Keywords:
mangrove; System Dynamics; blue carbon; rehabilitasi; ketahanan pesisir.Abstract
Ekosistem mangrove Kabupaten Indramayu menghadapi tekanan akibat perubahan penggunaan lahan, aktivitas antropogenik, dan perubahan iklim yang berpotensi menurunkan fungsi ekologis dan ketahanan pesisir. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan model pengelolaan berkelanjutan berbasis System Dynamics dengan mengintegrasikan konservasi, rehabilitasi, blue carbon, partisipasi masyarakat, dan adaptasi perubahan iklim. Data penginderaan jauh, survei lapangan, data lingkungan, dan data sekunder digunakan untuk membangun dan mengkalibrasi model. Simulasi dilakukan pada periode 2025–2050 menggunakan empat skenario, yaitu Business as Usual, Conservation, Rehabilitation, dan Integrated Sustainable Management. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa skenario Rehabilitation menghasilkan luas mangrove dan stok karbon tertinggi pada 2050, masing-masing 2.103,70 ha dan 848.906,06 t C. Namun, Integrated Sustainable Management memberikan strategi paling komprehensif untuk meningkatkan ketahanan ekosistem pesisir secara berkelanjutan.
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