ANALISIS ASIMETRI PEMBANGUNAN DAERAH DAN DINAMIKA KEMISKINAN ANTARPROVINSI DI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN REGRESI DATA PANEL (2021–2025): ANALISIS ASIMETRI PEMBANGUNAN DAERAH DAN DINAMIKA KEMISKINAN ANTARPROVINSI DI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN REGRESI DATA PANEL (2021–2025)

Nurviani Nurviani; Siti Hajar; Purwanto Purwanto; Darliah Darliah; Sayyidah Junaidah Al-Bahri; Lia Mulyani; Nurul Yusuf; Widiana Latifah; Dwi Rahayu Nurmiati

Authors

Nurviani Nurviani STISIP Syamsul Ulum
Siti Hajar
Purwanto Purwanto
Darliah Darliah
Sayyidah Junaidah Al-Bahri
Lia Mulyani
Nurul Yusuf
Widiana Latifah
Dwi Rahayu Nurmiati

Keywords:

Macro Poverty, Unemployment, Human Development Index, Regional GDP per Capita, Fixed Effect Model

Abstract

This study examines the effects of the open unemployment rate (TPT), the human development index (HDI), and regional GDP per capita on the poverty rate across Indonesian provinces during 2021–2025. Using a quantitative explanatory design with a balanced panel dataset covering 38 provinces (190 observations) sourced from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), parameters were estimated using panel data regression with a Fixed Effect Model, selected after Chow and Hausman tests and classical assumption checks. The results show that the open unemployment rate has a positive and significant effect on poverty, while the human development index and GDP per capita have negative and significant effects. Together, the three variables explain 86.5 percent of the variation in poverty across provinces. The human development index emerges as the most elastic determinant, indicating that investment in human capital functions as the primary structural shield against poverty, more so than capital-intensive economic growth. These findings support a policy shift from aggregate, growth-oriented strategies toward inclusive, human-capital-based approaches, along with the revitalization of local labor markets in Indonesia's underdeveloped, frontier, and outermost regions.

References

Alesina, A., & Perotti, R. (2020). Income distribution, political instability, and investment. European Economic Review, 121, 103-118.

Arndt, C., Mahrt, K., & Tarp, F. (2020). Structural transformation, inequality, and poverty reduction in developing countries. World Development, 136, 105-122.

Badan Pusat Statistik. (2021–2025). Laporan Berita Resmi Statistik: Profil Kemiskinan, Ketenagakerjaan, dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Indonesia. Jakarta: BPS RI.

Baltagi, B. H. (2021). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data (6th ed.). Springer Nature.

Becker, G. S. (1964). Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education. National Bureau of Economic Research.

Bhagwati, J., & Panagariya, A. (2013). Why Growth Matters: How Economic Growth in India Reduced Poverty and the Lessons for Other Developing Countries. PublicAffairs.

Dartanto, T., Moeis, F. R., & Otsuka, K. (2023). Shocks, vulnerability, and chronic poverty in Indonesia: New evidence from long-term longitudinal data. Journal of Asian Economics, 85, 101-115.

Foster, J., Greer, J., & Thorbecke, E. (2010). The Foster–Greer–Thorbecke poverty measures: Twenty-five years later. The Journal of Economic Inequality, 8(4), 491-524. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-010-9136-1

Fosu, A. K. (2023). Growth, inequality, and poverty reduction in developing countries: Recent global evidence. Research in Economics, 77(2), 154-167.

Ivani, W. T., & Auwalin, I. (2024). Komposisi sektoral dan pertumbuhan ekonomi: Dampaknya terhadap tingkat kemiskinan perdesaan di 34 provinsi Indonesia. Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies, 4(2), 353–367. https://doi.org/10.53088/jerps.v4i2.1077

Jonaidi, A. (2023). Analisis makroekonomi terhadap fenomena kemiskinan struktural regional di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Publik, 14(1), 45-58.

Pratamasyari, D. A., Pakawaru, I., Nuriatullah, Hidayah, N. R., & Amalia, R. (2025). The impact of Human Development Index on poverty rates in Indonesia: Panel data analysis of 34 provinces, 2015–2023. Jurnal Ilmu Perbankan dan Keuangan Syariah, 7(2), 372–388. https://doi.org/10.24239/jipsya.v7i2.358.372-388

Purnomo, S., Handoko, R., & Wibowo, A. (2024). Human capital development and poverty alleviation in Eastern Indonesia: A panel data analysis. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 60(1), 79-98.

Suryahadi, A., Al Izzati, M., & Suryadarma, D. (2021). Estimating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty in Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 57(1), 25-37.

Wan, G., Hu, X., & Liu, W. (2023). Digital economy, human capital, and poverty reduction in Southeast Asia. Journal of Asian Economics, 88, 101-118.

World Bank. (2025). Indonesia poverty assessment: Pathways towards economic security. World Bank. World Bank – Indonesia Poverty Assessment

Widiyanto, A., & Setyadharma, A. (2025). Pertumbuhan ekonomi regional versus degradasi ekologi: Menguji kebenaran Pro-Poor Growth di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 23(1), 12-29.